Spline models of biological population dynamics: How to estimate mortality rates for stage structured populations with dimorphic life histories

Abstract

Nonparametric spline based models of stage structured population dynamics provide an effective way of decomposing observed population dynamics into birth and death rate processes. Currently available methodology only considers simple life histories in which all individuals pass through the same sequence of stages in the same way. This paper presents techniques for obtaining birth and death rates from structured population time series of organisms with complex life histories. For example, in many species males and females develop at the same rate in early stages, but differently in late stages. The models are motivated by the need to obtain birth and death rates for a pest subject to biocontrol by a parasitoid.

biocontrol, McKendrick-von Foerster equation, smoothing spline, mortality estimation, birth rate, host–parasitoid, constrained smoothing, cross validation