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David E. Campbell, J. Quin Monson, The Religion Card: Gay Marriage and the 2004 Presidential Election, Public Opinion Quarterly, Volume 72, Issue 3, Fall 2008, Pages 399–419, https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfn032
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Abstract
In 2004, 13 states had ballot initiatives on whether their state constitutions should include a ban on gay marriage. States with gay marriage ballot propositions, which included the linchpin of Ohio, afforded Republicans the opportunity to raise gay marriage as an issue with an important subset of their base, white evangelical Protestants. We find evidence that white evangelical Protestants had a higher level of mobilization for Bush in states with a gay marriage initiative. However, we also see that secularists were demobilized in these same states, having a lower rate of turnout but not a higher level of support for Kerry.