Abstract

SUMMARY

With ideal spatial adaptation, an oracle furnishes information about how best to adapt a spatially variable estimator, whether piecewise constant, piecewise polynomial, variable knot spline, or variable bandwidth kernel, to the unknown function. Estimation with the aid of an oracle offers dramatic advantages over traditional linear estimation by nonadaptive kernels; however, it is a priori unclear whether such performance can be obtained by a procedure relying on the data alone. We describe a new principle for spatially-adaptive estimation: selective wavelet reconstruction. We show that variable-knot spline fits and piecewise-polynomial fits, when equipped with an oracle to select the knots, are not dramatically more powerful than selective wavelet reconstruction with an oracle. We develop a practical spatially adaptive method, Risk Shrink, which works by shrinkage of empirical wavelet coefficients. RiskShrink mimics the performance of an oracle for selective wavelet reconstruction as well as it is possible to do so. A new inequality in multivariate normal decision theory which we call the oracle inequality shows that attained performance differs from ideal performance by at most a factor of approximately 2 log n, where n is the sample size. Moreover no estimator can give a better guarantee than this. Within the class of spatially adaptive procedures, RiskShrink is essentially optimal. Relying only on the data, it comes within a factor log2n of the performance of piecewise polynomial and variableknot spline methods equipped with an oracle. In contrast, it is unknown how or if piecewise polynomial methods could be made to function this well when denied access to an oracle and forced to rely on data alone.