A shifting ecological baseline after wolf extirpation

Extract

Shifting baselines in ecology encapsulate the gradual and often unnoticed alterations in ecosystems over time, leading to a redefinition of what is considered normal or baseline conditions. A wide range of human activities, such as habitat alteration, pollution, invasive species, and climate change, can contribute significantly to these shifts, reshaping the structure and function of ecosystems. Nonanthropogenic factors such as natural evolutionary and geological processes can also play a role in driving these transitions. Identifying the historical ecological baseline, representing the so-called original state before most human impacts, is challenging. It generally requires careful analysis of long-term retrospective data, although research across systems (i.e., space for time substitution) can also provide relevant information (Klein and Thurstan 2016). Nevertheless, recognizing shifting baselines is crucial for effective conservation research and to allow thinking beyond the current state. In the present article, for illustrative purposes, we focus on one type of shifting baseline: the loss of a top terrestrial predator.