The starting point in the development of probabilistic analyses of token causation has usually been the naïve intuition that, in some relevant sense, a cause raises the probability of its effect. But there are well-known examples both of non-probability-raising causation and of probability-raising non-causation. Sophisticated extant probabilistic analyses treat many such cases correctly, but only at the cost of excluding the possibilities of direct non-probability-raising causation, failures of causal transitivity, action-at-a-distance, prevention, and causation by absence and omission. I show that an examination of the structure of these problem cases suggests a different treatment, one which avoids the costs of extant probabilistic analyses.
2 A Naïve Probabilistic Analysis, Two Objections and a Refinement
3 Non-probability-raising Causation
4 Graphical Representation of Cases of Non-probability-raising Causation
5 Probability-raising Non-causation
6 Graphical Representation of Cases of Probability-raising Non-causation
7 Completing the Probabilistic Analysis of Causation