
Published online:
24 October 2019
Published in print:
12 September 2019
Online ISBN:
9780191881428
Print ISBN:
9780198841364
Contents
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1. Introduction 1. Introduction
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2. How long could humanity survive? 2. How long could humanity survive?
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2.1 How long could life on Earth last? 2.1 How long could life on Earth last?
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2.2 Beyond a billion years? 2.2 Beyond a billion years?
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3. A framework for estimating the value of a chance of a long future 3. A framework for estimating the value of a chance of a long future
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3.1 Period Independence 3.1 Period Independence
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3.1.1 A rationale for Period Independence 3.1.1 A rationale for Period Independence
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3.1.2 Objection: Period Independence ignores some important “shape” considerations 3.1.2 Objection: Period Independence ignores some important “shape” considerations
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3.2 Additionality 3.2 Additionality
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3.3 Temporal Neutrality 3.3 Temporal Neutrality
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3.4 Risk Neutrality 3.4 Risk Neutrality
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3.5 Objection: Don’t these assumptions entail the Repugnant Conclusion? 3.5 Objection: Don’t these assumptions entail the Repugnant Conclusion?
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4. What do these assumptions suggest about the value of shaping the far future? 4. What do these assumptions suggest about the value of shaping the far future?
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4.1 How valuable is the far future, assuming it goes well? 4.1 How valuable is the far future, assuming it goes well?
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4.2 How valuable is the far future, in light of our uncertainty about how long it will last? 4.2 How valuable is the far future, in light of our uncertainty about how long it will last?
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4.3 How valuable is existential risk reduction in comparison with proximate benefits? 4.3 How valuable is existential risk reduction in comparison with proximate benefits?
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4.4 How valuable is existential risk reduction in comparison with speeding up development? 4.4 How valuable is existential risk reduction in comparison with speeding up development?
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4.5 Why “focus on trajectory changes,” rather than “minimize existential risk” is the upshot of this discussion 4.5 Why “focus on trajectory changes,” rather than “minimize existential risk” is the upshot of this discussion
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4.6 A caveat: ordinary actions may systematically but unintentionally improve our long-term trajectory 4.6 A caveat: ordinary actions may systematically but unintentionally improve our long-term trajectory
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5. Conclusion 5. Conclusion
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References References
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Chapter
6 A Brief Argument for the Overwhelming Importance of Shaping the Far Future
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Pages
80–98
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Published:September 2019
Cite
Beckstead, Nick, 'A Brief Argument for the Overwhelming Importance of Shaping the Far Future', in Hilary Greaves, and Theron Pummer (eds), Effective Altruism: Philosophical Issues (Oxford , 2019; online edn, Oxford Academic, 24 Oct. 2019), https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198841364.003.0006, accessed 28 Apr. 2025.
Abstract
In this chapter, Nick Beckstead argues that the best available interventions gain most of their expected value via the effects that they have on the long-run future, rather than via their more immediate effects. Because of the vastness of humanity’s possible future, this line of argument tends to favour actions that reduce risks of premature extinction, and actions that increase probabilities of other significantly beneficial “trajectory changes” to the course of humanity’s long-run future, even where the change in probabilities that we are able to bring about is very small.
Keywords:
existential risk, long-termism, population ethics, person-affecting views, temporal discounting, far future
Subject
Moral Philosophy
Collection:
Oxford Scholarship Online
Nick Beckstead, A Brief Argument for the Overwhelming Importance of Shaping the Far Future. In: Effective Altruism: Philosophical Issues. Edited by Hilary Greaves and Theron Pummer, Oxford University Press (2019). © Oxford University Press. DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198841364.003.0006
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