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Space: A Historically Stable and Stabilizing Domain? Space: A Historically Stable and Stabilizing Domain?
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The Revolution in Military Affairs and the Reemergence of ASAT Competition The Revolution in Military Affairs and the Reemergence of ASAT Competition
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The Reemergence of Geopolitics and the Growing Threat to Space Security The Reemergence of Geopolitics and the Growing Threat to Space Security
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The Logic and Growing Threat of Conflict in Space The Logic and Growing Threat of Conflict in Space
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The Cross-Domain Character of Threats to Military Space Systems The Cross-Domain Character of Threats to Military Space Systems
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Challenges of a Cross-Domain Deterrence Strategy for Space Challenges of a Cross-Domain Deterrence Strategy for Space
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6 Antisatellite Weapons and the Growing Instability of Deterrence
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Published:April 2019
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Abstract
During the Cold War, satellite capabilities reinforced nuclear deterrence because the superpowers relied on them to reinforce second-strike stability for nuclear weapons. Antisatellite technology was deployed, but it was also immature. Today, the broader use of space for conventional power projection, together with more mature target discrimination and antisatellite technology, create strong incentives for both the United States and its adversaries to conduct counter-space operations. The United States’ military power projection is utterly dependent on space assets for command, control, communications, intelligence, and targeting, but satellites are increasingly vulnerable to antisatellite capabilities, including not only direct attacks on satellites but also indirect cyber and electronic warfare interference on satellites, links, and ground-based control infrastructure. Several cross-domain options are available for deterrence both by denial (the threat of effective defense) and by punishment (the threat of retaliation). Unfortunately, the lack of shared norms regarding space warfare has uncertain consequences for escalation dynamics.
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