
Contents
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Part One The Pre-Bayah Period Part One The Pre-Bayah Period
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An Insurgency Emerges in Northern Mozambique An Insurgency Emerges in Northern Mozambique
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Cabo Delgado, Mozambique 2017 Cabo Delgado, Mozambique 2017
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Contestation of Muslim Religious Authority in Northern Mozambique Contestation of Muslim Religious Authority in Northern Mozambique
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Northern Mozambique 1930s–2010 Northern Mozambique 1930s–2010
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Intersectional Tensions in the Contested Cape Intersectional Tensions in the Contested Cape
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Cabo Delgado, Mozambique 1960s–2017 Cabo Delgado, Mozambique 1960s–2017
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An Insurgency Grows An Insurgency Grows
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Cabo Delgado, Mozambique October 2017–May 2018 Cabo Delgado, Mozambique October 2017–May 2018
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A Local Insurgency with a Regional Character A Local Insurgency with a Regional Character
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Uganda and Tanzania 2015–2018 Uganda and Tanzania 2015–2018
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A Pledge Presaged A Pledge Presaged
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Cabo Delgado, Mozambique 2018 Cabo Delgado, Mozambique 2018
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Part Two Bayah Period Part Two Bayah Period
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An Escalating Crisis An Escalating Crisis
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Cabo Delgado, Mozambique May 2018–June 2019 Cabo Delgado, Mozambique May 2018–June 2019
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Gambling on Gas Gambling on Gas
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Cabo Delgado, Mozambique 2018 Cabo Delgado, Mozambique 2018
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Answering the Call Answering the Call
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Cabo Delgado, Mozambique June 2019 Cabo Delgado, Mozambique June 2019
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Part Three The Post-Bayah Period Part Three The Post-Bayah Period
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A Very Different Trajectory A Very Different Trajectory
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Cabo Delgado, Mozambique June–November 2019 Cabo Delgado, Mozambique June–November 2019
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The Islamic State’s Central Africa Province at the Time of al-Baghdadi’s Death The Islamic State’s Central Africa Province at the Time of al-Baghdadi’s Death
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Mozambique October 2019 Mozambique October 2019
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10 The Islamic State’s Central Africa Province—Mozambique
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Published:March 2022
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Abstract
The Mozambican wing of the Islamic State’s Central Africa Province (ISCAP–Mozambique) is--along with the branch in the DRC--a component of the Islamic State’s newest province. The core of the ISCAP–Mozambique insurgency, locally referred to as “Al-Shabaab,” emerged in October 2017 from a longstanding Salafist sect that had become increasingly at odds with local religious leaders tied to the Mozambican state. A June 2019 claim by the Islamic State Central of an attack in Mozambique conducted by Al-Shabaab surprised many observers. With Al-Shabaab showing no former Al-Qaeda connections or sympathies, IS had not “democratized jihad” in the same ways that it had elsewhere on the continent. Nevertheless, what Al-Shabaab offered to IS Central was enough to achieve “affiliate utility validation”: in addition to offering strategic access to the Indian Ocean and proximity to a $50 billion natural gas project, the incorporation of ISCAP–Mozambique allowed for the impression that the Islamic State Central’s own reach was expanding into new theaters. The relationship between militants and the core group has remained far murkier than that of other affiliates, yet ISCAP-Mozambique appears to remain much more sovereign than subordinate, with its ties to IS Central remaining limited to propaganda output.
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