
Contents
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1 Thought Experiments and the Folk Psychology of Free Will 1 Thought Experiments and the Folk Psychology of Free Will
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2 The Tracking Problem 2 The Tracking Problem
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3 Grasping Determinism 3 Grasping Determinism
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3.1 Methods 3.1 Methods
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3.1.1 Participants 3.1.1 Participants
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3.1.2 Materials and procedures 3.1.2 Materials and procedures
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3.2 Results 3.2 Results
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3.2.1 Cross-study comparisons 3.2.1 Cross-study comparisons
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3.2.2 Summary statistics 3.2.2 Summary statistics
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3.2.3 Reliability and invariance of error measures 3.2.3 Reliability and invariance of error measures
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3.2.4 Relationship between error measures and judgment 3.2.4 Relationship between error measures and judgment
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3.3 Discussion 3.3 Discussion
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3.3.1 Error and judgment 3.3.1 Error and judgment
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3.3.2 Are these errors? 3.3.2 Are these errors?
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3.3.3 What explains the errors? 3.3.3 What explains the errors?
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4 Back to the Tracking Problem 4 Back to the Tracking Problem
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Acknowledgments Acknowledgments
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References References
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6 Do People Understand Determinism? The Tracking Problem for Measuring Free Will Beliefs
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Published:July 2024
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Abstract
Experimental work on free will typically relies on deterministic stimuli to elicit judgments of free will. We call this the Vignette-Judgment model. We outline a problem with research based on this model. It seems that people either fail to respond to the deterministic aspects of vignettes when making judgments or that their understanding of determinism differs from researcher expectations. We provide some empirical evidence for this claim. In the end, we argue that people seem to lack facility with the concept of determinism, which calls into question the validity of experimental work operating under the Vignette-Judgment model. We also argue that alternative experimental paradigms are unlikely to elicit judgments that are philosophically relevant to questions about the metaphysics of free will.
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