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Relative Cohort Size and Inequality Relative Cohort Size and Inequality
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Reexamining the Theory of Relative Cohort Size Effects Reexamining the Theory of Relative Cohort Size Effects
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Demand Effects of the Baby Boomers Demand Effects of the Baby Boomers
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Effects of the Military on Relative Wages Effects of the Military on Relative Wages
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Effect of International Trade Effect of International Trade
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Male Relative Wage versus Male Relative Income Male Relative Wage versus Male Relative Income
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Effects of Relative Cohort Size at the Aggregate Level Effects of Relative Cohort Size at the Aggregate Level
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Male and Female Returns to a College Education Male and Female Returns to a College Education
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The General Unemployment Rate The General Unemployment Rate
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Results for Male Relative Earnings Results for Male Relative Earnings
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Simulations: What Might Have Been—and What Might Come to Be Simulations: What Might Have Been—and What Might Come to Be
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Summary Summary
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5 First-Order Effects of Relative Cohort Size: Long-term Trends in Unemployment, Relative Income, and Returns to College
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Published:May 2002
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Abstract
This chapter concentrates on male relative income, unemployment, and returns to college education. It specifically utilizes aggregate data to look at the impacts of changing relative cohort size on the earning potential of younger men, relative to that of older men. It is assumed that the proportion of the active military aged 20–24 affected the relative income and earnings of young males. Furthermore, trade effects seem to have strongly operated, along with cohort effects, on the college wage premium, but the influences of trade appear to have been much less on male relative income. The male relative earnings will indeed be lower when relative cohort size is large. The cohort size effects have in fact been the most significant factor in deciding the labor market outcomes of young men and women, and are showing signs of exerting strong positive forces over the next few decades.
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