
Contents
-
-
-
-
-
-
1.1 Sources of Technological Optimism 1.1 Sources of Technological Optimism
-
1.2 The Disappointing Recent Reality 1.2 The Disappointing Recent Reality
-
1.3 Potential Explanations for the Paradox 1.3 Potential Explanations for the Paradox
-
1.3.1 False Hopes 1.3.1 False Hopes
-
1.3.2 Mismeasurement 1.3.2 Mismeasurement
-
1.3.3 Concentrated Distribution and Rent Dissipation 1.3.3 Concentrated Distribution and Rent Dissipation
-
1.3.4 Implementation and Restructuring Lags 1.3.4 Implementation and Restructuring Lags
-
-
1.4 The Argument in Favor of the Implementation and Restructuring Lags Explanation 1.4 The Argument in Favor of the Implementation and Restructuring Lags Explanation
-
1.5 A Technology-Driven Case for Productivity Optimism 1.5 A Technology-Driven Case for Productivity Optimism
-
1.6 Artificial Intelligence Is a General Purpose Technology 1.6 Artificial Intelligence Is a General Purpose Technology
-
1.7 Why Future Technological Progress Is Consistent with Low Current Productivity Growth 1.7 Why Future Technological Progress Is Consistent with Low Current Productivity Growth
-
1.8 Viewing Today’s Paradox through the Lens of Previous General Purpose Technologies 1.8 Viewing Today’s Paradox through the Lens of Previous General Purpose Technologies
-
1.9 Expected Productivity Effects of an AI-Driven Acceleration 1.9 Expected Productivity Effects of an AI-Driven Acceleration
-
1.10 Measuring AI Capital 1.10 Measuring AI Capital
-
1.11 Conclusion 1.11 Conclusion
-
Appendix Appendix
-
References References
-
Comment: Rebecca Henderson Comment: Rebecca Henderson
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1 Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics
Get access-
Published:May 2019
Cite
Abstract
We live in an age of paradox. Systems using artificial intelligence match or surpass human-level performance in more and more domains, leveraging rapid advances in other technologies and driving soaring stock prices. Yet measured productivity growth has declined by half over the past decade, and real income has stagnated since the late 1990s for most Americans. We describe four potential explanations for this clash of expectations and statistics: false hopes, mismeasurement, redistribution and implementation lags. While a case can be made for each explanation, we argue that lags have likely been the biggest contributor to the paradox. The most impressive capabilities of AI, particularly those based on machine learning, have not yet diffused widely. More importantly, like other general purpose technologies, their full effects won't be realized until waves of complementary innovations are developed and implemented. The adjustment costs, organizational changes, and new skills needed for successful AI can be modeled as a kind of intangible capital. Some of the value of this intangible capital is already reflected in the market value of firms. However, going forward, national statistics could fail to measure the full benefits of the new technologies and some may even have the wrong sign.
Sign in
Personal account
- Sign in with email/username & password
- Get email alerts
- Save searches
- Purchase content
- Activate your purchase/trial code
- Add your ORCID iD
Purchase
Our books are available by subscription or purchase to libraries and institutions.
Purchasing informationMonth: | Total Views: |
---|---|
October 2022 | 1 |
November 2022 | 6 |
December 2022 | 2 |
January 2023 | 3 |
February 2023 | 3 |
March 2023 | 4 |
April 2023 | 2 |
May 2023 | 9 |
June 2023 | 3 |
July 2023 | 11 |
August 2023 | 2 |
October 2023 | 7 |
November 2023 | 20 |
December 2023 | 5 |
January 2024 | 12 |
February 2024 | 10 |
March 2024 | 13 |
April 2024 | 7 |
May 2024 | 7 |
June 2024 | 6 |
July 2024 | 4 |
August 2024 | 10 |
September 2024 | 10 |
October 2024 | 10 |
November 2024 | 3 |
December 2024 | 2 |
January 2025 | 1 |
February 2025 | 5 |
March 2025 | 17 |
April 2025 | 7 |
Get help with access
Institutional access
Access to content on Oxford Academic is often provided through institutional subscriptions and purchases. If you are a member of an institution with an active account, you may be able to access content in one of the following ways:
IP based access
Typically, access is provided across an institutional network to a range of IP addresses. This authentication occurs automatically, and it is not possible to sign out of an IP authenticated account.
Sign in through your institution
Choose this option to get remote access when outside your institution. Shibboleth/Open Athens technology is used to provide single sign-on between your institution’s website and Oxford Academic.
If your institution is not listed or you cannot sign in to your institution’s website, please contact your librarian or administrator.
Sign in with a library card
Enter your library card number to sign in. If you cannot sign in, please contact your librarian.
Society Members
Society member access to a journal is achieved in one of the following ways:
Sign in through society site
Many societies offer single sign-on between the society website and Oxford Academic. If you see ‘Sign in through society site’ in the sign in pane within a journal:
If you do not have a society account or have forgotten your username or password, please contact your society.
Sign in using a personal account
Some societies use Oxford Academic personal accounts to provide access to their members. See below.
Personal account
A personal account can be used to get email alerts, save searches, purchase content, and activate subscriptions.
Some societies use Oxford Academic personal accounts to provide access to their members.
Viewing your signed in accounts
Click the account icon in the top right to:
Signed in but can't access content
Oxford Academic is home to a wide variety of products. The institutional subscription may not cover the content that you are trying to access. If you believe you should have access to that content, please contact your librarian.
Institutional account management
For librarians and administrators, your personal account also provides access to institutional account management. Here you will find options to view and activate subscriptions, manage institutional settings and access options, access usage statistics, and more.