
Contents
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Willingness to Accept the Costs and Risks of Mediation Willingness to Accept the Costs and Risks of Mediation
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Supply-Side Factors Supply-Side Factors
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Empirical Record Empirical Record
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Illustrative Cases Illustrative Cases
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Kissinger and Carter in the Middle East Kissinger and Carter in the Middle East
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Carter in North Korea Carter in North Korea
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Roosevelt at Portsmouth Roosevelt at Portsmouth
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Cite
Abstract
This chapter examines the conditions under which mediation is most prevalent. The first two hypotheses are that mediation occurs when the costs of conflict are high and the shadow of the future is short. In such situations, the short-term benefits of mediation are extremely attractive, with any long-term risks being more of an afterthought. A third hypothesis is that mediation is more likely to occur when there are strong pressures from third parties. Results from the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) and Issue Correlates of War (ICOW) data confirm that third-party peacemaking is more likely during severe conflict in unstable or new democratic regimes and in democratic communities. It also appears, however, that mediation is less likely to occur when the third parties are too eager to intrude and shape the outcomes as peacemakers. The cases of Kissinger and Carter in the Middle East, Roosevelt at Portsmouth, and Carter in North Korea illustrate these important factors that shape preferences for mediation.
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