
Contents
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Background Background
-
Where Do Random Numbers Come From? Where Do Random Numbers Come From?
-
Applications of Monte Carlo Analysis Applications of Monte Carlo Analysis
-
Understanding Sampling Distributions Understanding Sampling Distributions
-
Markov Chain Monte Carlo: Approximating Solutions to Hard Problems Markov Chain Monte Carlo: Approximating Solutions to Hard Problems
-
Simulation Modeling and Hypothesis Construction Simulation Modeling and Hypothesis Construction
-
-
Practical Problems in the Immediate Future Practical Problems in the Immediate Future
-
Replication Replication
-
Making MC Available to “The Masses” Making MC Available to “The Masses”
-
Specification Specification
-
-
Conclusion Conclusion
-
Author Note Author Note
-
References References
-
-
-
-
22 Monte Carlo Analysis in Academic Research
Get accessPaul E. Johnson, Department of Political Science, Kansas University
-
Published:01 October 2013
Cite
Abstract
Monte Carlo analysis is a research strategy that incorporates randomness into the design, implementation, or evaluation of theoretical models. It began in the 1940s, when the development of computer hardware and mathematical models made it possible to generate streams of random numbers. These random number streams are combined with mathematical models to create models and evaluate theories of random processes. This chapter attempts to tame this diverse, unmanageable collection of concepts and methods by dividing simulation projects into three types. The first, commonly called “Monte Carlo simulation,” is used to evaluate statistical estimators. When an estimation procedure is proposed, it is standard procedure to test it against a variety of simulated research problems. A second type of project, referred to as “Markov chain Monte Carlo” (MCMC), helps researchers draw conclusions about complicated probability models for which conventional research strategies do not yield insights. The third type of project arises in the study of complex systems, which are characterized by a large number of loosely interconnected, autonomous elements. Commonly known as “agent-based models,” these simulations have found enthusiastic advocates in environmental and social sciences.
Sign in
Personal account
- Sign in with email/username & password
- Get email alerts
- Save searches
- Purchase content
- Activate your purchase/trial code
- Add your ORCID iD
Purchase
Our books are available by subscription or purchase to libraries and institutions.
Purchasing informationMonth: | Total Views: |
---|---|
October 2022 | 6 |
November 2022 | 3 |
December 2022 | 2 |
January 2023 | 2 |
February 2023 | 2 |
March 2023 | 5 |
April 2023 | 3 |
June 2023 | 2 |
July 2023 | 3 |
September 2023 | 2 |
October 2023 | 2 |
November 2023 | 1 |
December 2023 | 4 |
January 2024 | 4 |
February 2024 | 4 |
March 2024 | 12 |
April 2024 | 11 |
May 2024 | 2 |
June 2024 | 4 |
July 2024 | 2 |
August 2024 | 2 |
September 2024 | 3 |
October 2024 | 7 |
November 2024 | 9 |
December 2024 | 4 |
January 2025 | 4 |
February 2025 | 2 |
March 2025 | 7 |
April 2025 | 3 |
Get help with access
Institutional access
Access to content on Oxford Academic is often provided through institutional subscriptions and purchases. If you are a member of an institution with an active account, you may be able to access content in one of the following ways:
IP based access
Typically, access is provided across an institutional network to a range of IP addresses. This authentication occurs automatically, and it is not possible to sign out of an IP authenticated account.
Sign in through your institution
Choose this option to get remote access when outside your institution. Shibboleth/Open Athens technology is used to provide single sign-on between your institution’s website and Oxford Academic.
If your institution is not listed or you cannot sign in to your institution’s website, please contact your librarian or administrator.
Sign in with a library card
Enter your library card number to sign in. If you cannot sign in, please contact your librarian.
Society Members
Society member access to a journal is achieved in one of the following ways:
Sign in through society site
Many societies offer single sign-on between the society website and Oxford Academic. If you see ‘Sign in through society site’ in the sign in pane within a journal:
If you do not have a society account or have forgotten your username or password, please contact your society.
Sign in using a personal account
Some societies use Oxford Academic personal accounts to provide access to their members. See below.
Personal account
A personal account can be used to get email alerts, save searches, purchase content, and activate subscriptions.
Some societies use Oxford Academic personal accounts to provide access to their members.
Viewing your signed in accounts
Click the account icon in the top right to:
Signed in but can't access content
Oxford Academic is home to a wide variety of products. The institutional subscription may not cover the content that you are trying to access. If you believe you should have access to that content, please contact your librarian.
Institutional account management
For librarians and administrators, your personal account also provides access to institutional account management. Here you will find options to view and activate subscriptions, manage institutional settings and access options, access usage statistics, and more.