Populist Persuasion in Electoral Campaigns: Evidence from Bryan's Unique Whistle-Stop Tour

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of campaign appearances in the context of the one-sided nationwide tour by William J. Bryan, the Democratic US presidential candidate in 1896. During this electoral campaign, Bryan undertook an unprecedented whistle-stop train tour, while the Republican candidate followed a front-porch campaign. To identify the causal effect of campaign speeches, we exploit several estimation strategies, including a within-county difference-in-differences design and a neighbour-pair fixed effect estimator. We find that campaign visits by Bryan increased his vote share by about one percentage point on average. This increase likely stems from the persuasion of previously non-aligned industrial workers.