2.Q. Workshop: Prepared for the unexpected: using foresight to address uncertainty

Abstract   All future trends carry uncertainty in them. For example, the COVID-19 pandemic showed great uncertainty about current and future health impacts and how the virus may directly impact our health. Foresight (as a systematic, participatory, future-intelligence-gathering and medium-to-long term vision-building process aimed at enabling present-day decisions and mobilising joint actions) explicitly addresses uncertainty. Doing a foresight study one has to deal with different sources of uncertainty. Next to commonly known statistical uncertainty, foresight studies have to deal with cognitive uncertainty, i.e. uncertainty related to the limited knowledge that we have regarding the complexity of the underlying system or limited knowledge of what future economic growth will be. A better understanding of the location, level, and nature of the cognitive uncertainties helps assess the robustness of future scenarios. In addition to cognitive uncertainty, normative uncertainty are distinguished. This refers to uncertainty related to differences in what we consider a desirable future. Especially in the field of public health people differ on what they consider to be “good health”. In this workshop, we will focus on the different aspects of uncertainty and how they are considered in existing foresight studies. The workshop will start with an interactive Mentimeter session to better understand how the audience is familiar with foresight and uncertainty. Then, a brief presentation is given as introduction to foresight and a systematic way of accounting for uncertainty, explaining the basic concepts to level understanding of the audience. This is followed by a presentation of a Foresight study (FRESHER) that addresses cognitive uncertainties consistently and systematically. The second foresight study (Dutch PHFS, RVIM) is a good example of how normative uncertainties are considered. Finally, the last presentation (CEG-IST) gives the policy perspective about how policy makers can incorporate uncertainty, as modelled through foresight, into policy evaluation. The workshop will be concluded by a discussion with the three presenters on the lessons learned regarding foresight and uncertainty. Key messages • Foresight studies addressing uncertainty are essential to be better prepared for the future. • Acknowledging different types of uncertainty is needed to support foresight-informed policy making.

All future trends carry uncertainty in them.For example, the COVID-19 pandemic showed great uncertainty about current and future health impacts and how the virus may directly impact our health.Foresight (as a systematic, participatory, future-intelligence-gathering and medium-to-long term vision-building process aimed at enabling present-day decisions and mobilising joint actions) explicitly addresses uncertainty.Doing a foresight study one has to deal with different sources of uncertainty.Next to commonly known statistical uncertainty, foresight studies have to deal with cognitive uncertainty, i.e. uncertainty related to the limited knowledge that we have regarding the complexity of the underlying system or limited knowledge of what future economic growth will be.A better understanding of the location, level, and nature of the cognitive uncertainties helps assess the robustness of future scenarios.In addition to cognitive uncertainty, normative uncertainty are distinguished.This refers to uncertainty related to differences in what we consider a desirable future.Especially in the field of public health people differ on what they consider to be ''good health''.In this workshop, we will focus on the different aspects of uncertainty and how they are considered in existing foresight studies.The workshop will start with an interactive Mentimeter session to better understand how the audience is familiar with foresight and uncertainty.Then, a brief presentation is given as introduction to foresight and a systematic way of accounting for uncertainty, explaining the basic concepts to level understanding of the audience.This is followed by a presentation of a Foresight study (FRESHER) that addresses cognitive uncertainties consistently and systematically.The second foresight study (Dutch PHFS, RVIM) is a good example of how normative uncertainties are considered.Finally, the last presentation (CEG-IST) gives the policy perspective about how policy makers can incorporate uncertainty, as modelled through foresight, into policy evaluation.The workshop will be concluded by a discussion with the three presenters on the lessons learned regarding foresight and uncertainty.

Key messages:
Foresight studies addressing uncertainty are essential to be better prepared for the future.
Acknowledging different types of uncertainty is needed to support foresight-informed policy making.

Abstract citation ID: ckac129.120 The inseparable relation between foresight and uncertainty
Henk Hilderink H Hilderink 1 , D Moye Holz 1 1 RIVM, Bilthoven, Netherlands Contact: henk.hilderink@rivm.nl This presentation starts with an interactive mentimeter poll to involve the audience.They will be asked several questions about what they find important in dealing with uncertainty in public health foresight studies.

Background:
The future is per definition uncertain.Our knowledge about the future is obviously limited, especially when we look further into the future.Next to limited knowledge, people also have different ideas about what they consider a desirable future.All these aspects of uncertainty play a role when doing a foresight study.One of the challenges when doing a foresight study is to address these uncertainties in a systematic manner.

Methods:
The cognitive uncertainty addresses the lack of knowledge, which can easily be extended to the information that can be inaccurate or unreliable.These cognitive uncertainties can vary widely, and can be classified according to location, level and nature of the uncertainty.Especially in foresight studies with a strong quantitative character, the cognitive uncertainties can be crucial and can form the basis of developing scenarios.Next to the cognitive uncertainties, normative uncertainties can be distinguished which address desirable futures.These represent the obvious differences in norms and values that people have when valuing health.There are several examples of public health foresight studies that include a proper consideration of uncertainties involved.

Conclusions:
Applications of foresight studies in the field of public health are still limited.However, the recent years we see a broadening of initiatives of doing a foresight study, including addressing uncertainty in an more systematic way.Especially in public health, the normative uncertainty might play a rather relevant role. iii52 European Journal of Public Health, Volume 32 Supplement 3, 2022