A dynamic transmission model to calculate vaccination coverage needed to control COVID-19 in Germany

Abstract Background Control of the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in Germany and return to pre-pandemic behaviour can only be achieved through natural or vaccine-induced immunity. Sufficient vaccine capacity promotes interest in the necessary and feasible target vaccination coverage. Methods An age and risk group stratified SEIR transmission model was used to assess the impact of vaccination coverage ranging 65%-95% for 12-59-year-olds and 90%-95% for ≥ 60-year-olds on COVID-19 incidence and intensive care unit (ICU) utilization between 01.07.2021-31.03.2022. Separate implementation of licensed vaccines allows to consider different efficacies, delivery rates and age-specific national vaccination recommendations. The analysis was conducted under different assumptions about contact behaviour during summer, reduction of daily contacts with increasing number of cases, daily vaccination uptake and the dominant variant. Data from the COVIMO study (N = 3004, data collection: 17.05.-09.06.2021) were used to define the population percentage willing to be vaccinated. Results The COVIMO study indicates an achievable vaccination compliance rate of 83.9% among 12-59-year-olds and 94.8% among those ≥ 60-year-olds. Maximum incidence or ICU utilization during observation period decreases from 385 to 61 and 6220 to 2800, respectively, with an increase in vaccination coverage from 65% to 95% of 12-59-year-olds, 90% vaccination rate among ≥ 60-year-olds, compared to pre-pandemic reduced contact behaviour in summer and reduction of contacts as case numbers increase. Conclusions The vaccination campaign should be continued at high intensity until at least 85% of 12-59-year-olds or 90% of ≥ 60-year-olds are fully vaccinated against COVID-19. Based on the population's willingness to be vaccinated, this goal seemed feasible. Key messages • Mathematical modeling was used to determine an evidence-based target vaccination coverage of ≥ 85%. • Expertise in modeling should be further strengthened.


Background:
Control of the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in Germany and return to pre-pandemic behaviour can only be achieved through natural or vaccine-induced immunity. Sufficient vaccine capacity promotes interest in the necessary and feasible target vaccination coverage. Methods: An age and risk group stratified SEIR transmission model was used to assess the impact of vaccination coverage ranging 65%-95% for 12-59-year-olds and 90%-95% for 60-year-olds on COVID-19 incidence and intensive care unit (ICU) utilization between 01.07.2021-31.03.2022. Separate implementation of licensed vaccines allows to consider different efficacies, delivery rates and age-specific national vaccination recommendations. The analysis was conducted under different assumptions about contact behaviour during summer, reduction of daily contacts with increasing number of cases, daily vaccination uptake and the dominant variant. Data from the COVIMO study (N = 3004, data collection: 17.05.-09.06.2021) were used to define the population percentage willing to be vaccinated.

Results:
The COVIMO study indicates an achievable vaccination compliance rate of 83.9% among 12-59-year-olds and 94.8% among those 60-year-olds. Maximum incidence or ICU utilization during observation period decreases from 385 to 61 and 6220 to 2800, respectively, with an increase in vaccination coverage from 65% to 95% of 12-59-year-olds, 90% vaccination rate among 60-year-olds, compared to pre-pandemic reduced contact behaviour in summer and reduction of contacts as case numbers increase.

Conclusions:
The vaccination campaign should be continued at high intensity until at least 85% of 12-59-year-olds or 90%

Introduction:
Vaccination is the primary pharmacological measure to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission and its complications. Timely information on vaccines effectiveness in a context of novel variants of concern (VOC) emergence is essential for public health policies. This study aimed to provide a measure of comparative vaccine effectiveness between Omicron (BA.1) and Delta (B.1.627.2) VOC according to vaccination exposure (complete primary regimen or booster dose) for Portuguese population aged 12 or more years old using routinely collected data from electronic health records.

Methods:
We used a case-case study design linking national electronic vaccination registry and surveillance data on 13,134 SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR laboratory-confirmed cases notified in Portugal during weeks 49-51 of 2021. Notified cases were classified as Omicron or Delta based on whole-genome sequencing or S-gene Target Failure (SGTF) status using the RT-PCR TaqPath TM Covid 19 CE IVD Kit (Thermo Scientific TM ) assay. The odds of vaccination was compared between Omicron cases and Delta cases using logistic regression adjusted for age group, sex, region and week of diagnosis and laboratory of origin.

Conclusions:
We found significantly higher odds of vaccination in Omicron cases compared to Delta, suggesting lower effectiveness of the primary vaccination and the booster dose in preventing infections by Omicron. Case-case study design has proven to be feasible approach to rapidly compare vaccine effectiveness between VOC in context of novel VOC emergence to timely inform public health stakeholders. Key messages: Reduction of vaccine-induced protection against SARS-COV-2 infection with the Omicron compared to Delta after primary and booster vaccination. Continuous monitoring of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness is essential to support public health policies in context of novel VOC emergence.
iii272 European Journal of Public Health, Volume 32 Supplement 3, 2022