Abstract

This paper investigates the determinants of migration from 45 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries over the period 1965–2005. The significant determinants are armed conflict and lack of job opportunities. An additional year of conflict is estimated to raise emigration by 1.7 per 1,000 inhabitants, while an additional 1% reduction in relative growth is found to reduce emigration by 1.5 per 1,000. Demographic and environmental pressures are found to have a less important direct impact, although they may have an indirect impact on migration through conflict and job opportunities. Finally, evidence is found of a ‘migration hump’ in migration from SSA, which is consistent with the finding that much migration from SSA is forced.

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