The Anti-deterrence Hypothesis: What if International Criminal Justice Encouraged Crime?

Abstract

Although there is by now considerable debate on how much general deterrence effect international criminal justice has, there has been far less discussion of a discreet dimension that has long been identified in the criminology literature, namely the possibility that criminal justice would have an anti-deterrent effect. Along what lines, then, might we understand international criminal justice to be partly ‘criminogenic’? This article sketches some ways in which this phenomenon might be understood, taking into account the specificities of international justice. It argues that the risk of further violence by suspects, of imperfect justice revealing its weaknesses and creating a backlash, and of romanticization of ‘outlaws’ can all count as potential anti-deterrent effects, although their significance for the larger project remains hard to gauge.