Computational Tools in Predicting and Assessing Forced Migration

Abstract

This paper highlights the potential use of computational models in predicting key spatial patterns of conflict-induced forced displacement. The complexity inherent in displacement is well demonstrated by counter-intuitive or ‘aberrant’ patterns of flight that are not easily explained by extant forced-displacement theory. In order to develop contingency models of flight to assist aid providers or policy makers, a need exists to capture this complexity using the leverage of computational models. There has been little systematic effort to apply advances in computational modelling to forced displacement, and this paper seeks to highlight the benefits, potential model designs, and likely limitations of this needed tool.