
Contents
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Looking Back: What Caused the Disaster of 1914? Looking Back: What Caused the Disaster of 1914?
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Bad Ideas Bad Ideas
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Dysfunctional Internal Politics Dysfunctional Internal Politics
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An International Stage for War An International Stage for War
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Looking Ahead: Could 1914 Happen Again? Looking Ahead: Could 1914 Happen Again?
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Reassuring Comparisons Reassuring Comparisons
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Cautionary Tales Cautionary Tales
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Conclusion Conclusion
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Introduction: The Sarajevo Centenary—1914 and the Rise of China
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Published:December 2014
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Extract
In the golden summer of 1914, the assassination of the heir to the Austro-Hungarian throne in Vienna’s distant Balkan province of Bosnia-Herzegovina triggered a sequence of events that within weeks had plunged Europe’s major powers into war. What followed was a disaster of immense proportions. The costs of this war were vast; for more than four cruel years, the great powers spent lavishly in blood and treasure. Men were cut down in the millions and treasuries were emptied. The consequences of this war were enormous and lasting. By war’s end, four empires—the German, Russian, Austrian, and Ottoman—had been destroyed. The map of Europe and the Middle East had been redrawn. Germany and Russia had been wracked by internal revolutions, with fateful long-term implications for both those countries and for the world. Even the European victors, France and Britain, had been weakened by a savage depletion that hastened their declines as major powers. Out of the wreckage of World War I flowed developments that were central to international politics for the remainder of the twentieth century: the rise of Nazism, a second global war, and the Cold War rivalry that pitted the heirs to the Russian Revolution of 1917 against the one power that emerged from World War I unscathed and strengthened, the United States. In the summer of 1914, history pivoted: the previous world would be destroyed and the path that opened up was dark and dangerous. This was one of the formative turning points in modern history.
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