
Contents
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Targeting Civilians To Win Or To Lose? Unconditional Arguments Targeting Civilians To Win Or To Lose? Unconditional Arguments
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Targeting Civilians: it Works Targeting Civilians: it Works
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Targeting Civilians: it’s Futile Targeting Civilians: it’s Futile
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Targeting Civilians To Win Or To Lose? It Depends Targeting Civilians To Win Or To Lose? It Depends
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Wars of Attrition Versus Wars to Annex Territory Wars of Attrition Versus Wars to Annex Territory
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Target Size Target Size
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Change Over Time Change Over Time
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Target Regime Type Target Regime Type
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Evaluating The Effectiveness Of Civilian Targeting: Data, Variables, And Method Evaluating The Effectiveness Of Civilian Targeting: Data, Variables, And Method
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Statistical Results Statistical Results
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Unconditional Hypotheses Unconditional Hypotheses
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Conditional Effects Conditional Effects
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Civilian Victimization And War Outcomes: A Closer Look Civilian Victimization And War Outcomes: A Closer Look
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Wars of Annexation and Ethnic Cleansing Wars of Annexation and Ethnic Cleansing
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Wars of Attrition and Civilian Victimization Wars of Attrition and Civilian Victimization
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Conclusion Conclusion
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2 Targeting Civilians to Win? Assessing the Military Effectiveness of Civilian Victimization in Interstate War
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Published:August 2010
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Abstract
This chapter attempts to assess the impact of civilian victimization on the achievement of wartime objectives. War outcome, measured using a trichotomous indicator, is considered an imperfect measure for evaluating the effectiveness of civilian victimization. This chapter presents cross tabulation of civilian targeting and interstate war outcomes from 1816 to 2003, ordinal logit estimates of civilian victimization and interstate war outcomes, and the effects of civilian targeting on probabilities of victory, of a draw, and of defeat. Wars of territorial annexation cause ethnic cleansing, whereas wars of attrition last much longer than other wars. Civilian victimization was not relevant to victory or defeat in cases such as the Boxer Rebellion, ethnic cleansing in the First Balkan War, Turkey in World War I, the Greco-Turkish War, the Soviet Union in World War II, and Armenia–Azerbaijan, but in some other cases it may have contributed to the victory.
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