Referendums as Critical Junctures? Scottish Voting in British Elections

Extract

It has been a turbulent time in Scottish politics. Voters have been to the polls seven times since May 2014, twice in constitutional referendums that offered seismic change. While Scots voted to Remain in the UK in 2014 and voted to stay in Europe in 2016, the prospect of a second independence referendum remains and it appears that Scotland will leave the EU with the rest of the UK. The change a majority rejected in 2014 might yet occur, and the change only a minority wanted in 2016 appears guaranteed. The 2015 Westminster election saw a dramatic increase in Scottish National Party (SNP) support, marking the end of Labour dominance among Scottish MPs, with the SNP finally replicating its status in Scottish electoral politics evident in Holyrood elections since 2007. This chapter explores the impact of the Scottish and Brexit referendum votes upon the 2017 Westminster election in Scotland. It considers the literature on elections in multi-level polities and assesses the respective importance of parties, leaders, and critical junctures to explain the 2017 UK General Election result in Scotland. Using data from the 2014-2015 Scottish Referendum Study and the 2016-2017 Scottish Election Study, we evaluate the claim that the two referendums have served as critical junctures in Scottish electoral politics.