Trend in Personal Finances and the Vote

Abstract

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between perceived trend in family finances and voting for candidates of the incumbent presidential party. Analysis of CPS/SRC survey data for the 1956–1974 period provides considerable support for the research hypothesis of maximizing economic rationality at the polls. A normal vote analysis supports the authenticity of these findings and reveals relatively strong effects in subpresidential electoral contests. Comparisons are drawn between the aggregate effect of these perceptions on the outcome of congressional elections and that of changes in per capita personal income, the main explanatory variable in leading studies based on aggregate data.