THE ROLE OF CONSTITUENT TRUST IN CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS

Abstract

The purpose of this inquiry is to introduce a new variable into the study of congressional elections—constituent trust. Constituent trust is defined as the level of confidence that constituents have in their elected representative. This analysis suggests a strategy for measuring constituent trust and develops a model that relates constituent trust directly and indirectly to electoral support. By pooling cross-sectional data drawn from the University of Michigan's American National Election Studies (1978–84), I demonstrate that when constituent trust is salient in voter cognitions, it has a significant direct influence on electoral support and is a better predictor of electoral support than the incumbent's party identification. In addition to its direct effects, I show that constituent trust indirectly influences electoral support because of its causal relationship to incumbent popularity.