THE BUILDING OF A REPUBLICAN REGIONAL BASE IN THE SOUTH THE ELEPHANT CROSSES THE MASON-DIXON LINE

Abstract

Changes in party identification are examined from 1952 to 1988, with a special emphasis on the findings from the 1988 CPS Super Tuesday Study. It is found that in 1988 Republicans clearly outnumbered Democrats among southern whites for the first time ever. Demographic patterns of partisanship in 1988 are compared to those from the 1950s. Most important is the relationship which now exists between age and party identification. Republicans now have a 29 percent lead over the Democrats among southern whites under 30 years of age. While firm black support of the Democratic party should prevent the South from becoming as solidly Republican as it once was Democratic, there is good reason to expect further Republican gains in the South throughout the remainder of the twentieth century.