The True Electorate: A Cross-Validation of Voter Registration Files and Election Survey Demographics

Abstract

I cross-validate the 2004 general election electorate's demographic profile available from voter registration files, the media consortium's National Election Poll or exit poll, and the Current Population Survey within selected states. I find voter files and Current Population Survey to be in general agreement, but the exit poll reports an electorate that is younger and composed of more minorities. All three confirm a pronounced pro-woman turnout gap.