Association between changes in cigarette smoking intensity and risk of stroke or myocardial infarction
| Smoking status . | n (%) . | Stroke . | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 . | 2011 . | Case no. . | IR per 1000 person-years . | HR (95% CI) . | aHRa (95% CI) . | 5-Year absolute risk (%) (95% CI) . | Risk difference (95% CI) . | |
| All current smokers | Quitter | 185 234 (20.6) | 3481 | 3.0 | 0.97 (0.93–1.01) | 0.77 (0.74–0.81) | 1.28 (1.24–1.33) | −0.37 (−0.43 to −0.31) |
| Reducer I | 65 434 (7.3) | 1631 | 4.0 | 1.30 (1.24–1.37) | 1.02 (0.97–1.08) | 1.68 (1.60–1.77) | 0.03 (−0.06 to 0.12) | |
| Reducer II | 104 040 (11.6) | 2004 | 3.1 | 1.00 (0.95–1.05) | 1.00 (0.95–1.05) | 1.65 (1.57–1.72) | −0.01 (−0.09 to 0.07) | |
| Sustainer | 410 395 (45.7) | 7923 | 3.1 | 1 (Ref.) | 1 (Ref.) | 1.66 (1.62–1.69) | — | |
| Increaser | 132 872 (14.5) | 2709 | 3.3 | 1.06 (1.01–1.11) | 1.02 (0.98–1.07) | 1.69 (1.62–1.75) | 0.03 (−0.04 to 0.10) | |
| Light smokers (n = 89 040) | Quitter | 34 063 (38.3) | 688 | 3.3 | 0.91 (0.81–1.04) | 0.88 (0.77–1.01) | 1.63 (1.50–1.77) | −0.21 (−0.45 to 0.03) |
| Reducer I | 2984 (3.4) | 61 | 3.3 | 0.94 (0.71–1.23) | 0.81 (0.62–1.06) | 1.50 (1.13–1.86) | −0.35 (−0.76 to 0.06) | |
| Reducer II | 5786 (6.5) | 161 | 4.5 | 1.27 (1.06–1.53) | 1.07 (0.89–1.29) | 1.98 (1.67–2.28) | 0.13 (−0.21 to 0.48) | |
| Sustainer | 16 863 (18.9) | 371 | 3.6 | 1 (Ref.) | 1 (Ref.) | 1.84 (1.65–2.04) | — | |
| Increaser | 29 344 (33.0) | 707 | 3.9 | 1.10 (0.97–1.25) | 1.13 (1.00–1.29) | 2.08 (1.92–2.24) | 0.24 (0.00–0.47) | |
| Moderate smokers (n = 335 152) | Quitter | 73 550 (22.0) | 1335 | 2.9 | 1.04 (0.97–1.11) | 0.85 (0.79–0.92) | 1.27 (1.20–1.34) | −0.22 (−0.31 to −0.12) |
| Reducer I | 14 184 (4.2) | 332 | 3.8 | 1.35 (1.21–1.52) | 0.97 (0.86–1.09) | 1.44 (1.28–1.59) | −0.05 (−0.21 to 0.11) | |
| Reducer II | 35 346 (10.5) | 705 | 3.2 | 1.14 (1.05–1.25) | 1.05 (0.96–1.14) | 1.55 (1.44–1.67) | 0.07 (−0.06 to 0.19) | |
| Sustainer | 136 790 (40.8) | 2390 | 2.8 | 1 (Ref.) | 1 (Ref.) | 1.49 (1.42–1.55) | — | |
| Increaser | 75 282 (22.5) | 1405 | 3.0 | 1.07 (1.00–1.15) | 1.12 (1.04–1.19) | 1.65 (1.56–1.74) | 0.17 (0.06–0.27) | |
| Heavy smokers (n = 473 783) | Quitter | 77 621 (16.4) | 1458 | 3.0 | 0.93 (0.88–0.99) | 0.73 (0.68–0.78) | 1.23 (1.16–1.30) | −0.45 (−0.53 to −0.36) |
| Reducer I | 48 266 (18.2) | 1238 | 4.2 | 1.29 (1.21–1.37) | 1.02 (0.96–1.08) | 1.71 (1.61–1.80) | 0.03 (−0.07 to 0.14) | |
| Reducer II | 62 908 (13.3) | 1138 | 2.9 | 0.90 (0.84–0.96) | 0.97 (0.91–1.03) | 1.62 (1.53–1.72) | −0.05 (−0.16 to 0.05) | |
| Sustainer | 256 742 (54.2) | 5162 | 3.2 | 1 (Ref.) | 1 (Ref.) | 1.68 (1.63–1.72) | — | |
| Increaser | 28 246 (6.0) | 597 | 3.4 | 1.05 (0.97–1.15) | 1.14 (1.04–1.24) | 1.90 (1.75–2.05) | 0.22 (0.07–0.38) | |
| Smoking status . | n (%) . | Stroke . | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 . | 2011 . | Case no. . | IR per 1000 person-years . | HR (95% CI) . | aHRa (95% CI) . | 5-Year absolute risk (%) (95% CI) . | Risk difference (95% CI) . | |
| All current smokers | Quitter | 185 234 (20.6) | 3481 | 3.0 | 0.97 (0.93–1.01) | 0.77 (0.74–0.81) | 1.28 (1.24–1.33) | −0.37 (−0.43 to −0.31) |
| Reducer I | 65 434 (7.3) | 1631 | 4.0 | 1.30 (1.24–1.37) | 1.02 (0.97–1.08) | 1.68 (1.60–1.77) | 0.03 (−0.06 to 0.12) | |
| Reducer II | 104 040 (11.6) | 2004 | 3.1 | 1.00 (0.95–1.05) | 1.00 (0.95–1.05) | 1.65 (1.57–1.72) | −0.01 (−0.09 to 0.07) | |
| Sustainer | 410 395 (45.7) | 7923 | 3.1 | 1 (Ref.) | 1 (Ref.) | 1.66 (1.62–1.69) | — | |
| Increaser | 132 872 (14.5) | 2709 | 3.3 | 1.06 (1.01–1.11) | 1.02 (0.98–1.07) | 1.69 (1.62–1.75) | 0.03 (−0.04 to 0.10) | |
| Light smokers (n = 89 040) | Quitter | 34 063 (38.3) | 688 | 3.3 | 0.91 (0.81–1.04) | 0.88 (0.77–1.01) | 1.63 (1.50–1.77) | −0.21 (−0.45 to 0.03) |
| Reducer I | 2984 (3.4) | 61 | 3.3 | 0.94 (0.71–1.23) | 0.81 (0.62–1.06) | 1.50 (1.13–1.86) | −0.35 (−0.76 to 0.06) | |
| Reducer II | 5786 (6.5) | 161 | 4.5 | 1.27 (1.06–1.53) | 1.07 (0.89–1.29) | 1.98 (1.67–2.28) | 0.13 (−0.21 to 0.48) | |
| Sustainer | 16 863 (18.9) | 371 | 3.6 | 1 (Ref.) | 1 (Ref.) | 1.84 (1.65–2.04) | — | |
| Increaser | 29 344 (33.0) | 707 | 3.9 | 1.10 (0.97–1.25) | 1.13 (1.00–1.29) | 2.08 (1.92–2.24) | 0.24 (0.00–0.47) | |
| Moderate smokers (n = 335 152) | Quitter | 73 550 (22.0) | 1335 | 2.9 | 1.04 (0.97–1.11) | 0.85 (0.79–0.92) | 1.27 (1.20–1.34) | −0.22 (−0.31 to −0.12) |
| Reducer I | 14 184 (4.2) | 332 | 3.8 | 1.35 (1.21–1.52) | 0.97 (0.86–1.09) | 1.44 (1.28–1.59) | −0.05 (−0.21 to 0.11) | |
| Reducer II | 35 346 (10.5) | 705 | 3.2 | 1.14 (1.05–1.25) | 1.05 (0.96–1.14) | 1.55 (1.44–1.67) | 0.07 (−0.06 to 0.19) | |
| Sustainer | 136 790 (40.8) | 2390 | 2.8 | 1 (Ref.) | 1 (Ref.) | 1.49 (1.42–1.55) | — | |
| Increaser | 75 282 (22.5) | 1405 | 3.0 | 1.07 (1.00–1.15) | 1.12 (1.04–1.19) | 1.65 (1.56–1.74) | 0.17 (0.06–0.27) | |
| Heavy smokers (n = 473 783) | Quitter | 77 621 (16.4) | 1458 | 3.0 | 0.93 (0.88–0.99) | 0.73 (0.68–0.78) | 1.23 (1.16–1.30) | −0.45 (−0.53 to −0.36) |
| Reducer I | 48 266 (18.2) | 1238 | 4.2 | 1.29 (1.21–1.37) | 1.02 (0.96–1.08) | 1.71 (1.61–1.80) | 0.03 (−0.07 to 0.14) | |
| Reducer II | 62 908 (13.3) | 1138 | 2.9 | 0.90 (0.84–0.96) | 0.97 (0.91–1.03) | 1.62 (1.53–1.72) | −0.05 (−0.16 to 0.05) | |
| Sustainer | 256 742 (54.2) | 5162 | 3.2 | 1 (Ref.) | 1 (Ref.) | 1.68 (1.63–1.72) | — | |
| Increaser | 28 246 (6.0) | 597 | 3.4 | 1.05 (0.97–1.15) | 1.14 (1.04–1.24) | 1.90 (1.75–2.05) | 0.22 (0.07–0.38) | |
| Smoking status . | n (%) . | Myocardial infarction . | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 . | 2011 . | Case no. . | IR per 1000 person-years . | HR (95% CI) . | aHRa (95% CI) . | 5-Year absolute risk (%) (95% CI) . | Risk difference (95% CI) . | |
| All current smokers | Quitter | 185 234 (20.6) | 2125 | 1.8 | 0.90 (0.86–0.95) | 0.74 (0.70–0.78) | 0.77 (0.74–0.81) | −0.27 (−0.31 to −0.22) |
| Reducer I | 65 434 (7.3) | 953 | 2.4 | 1.16 (1.08–1.24) | 0.99 (0.92–1.06) | 1.03 (0.96–1.09) | −0.01 (−0.08 to 0.06) | |
| Reducer II | 104 040 (11.6) | 1299 | 2.0 | 0.99 (0.93–1.05) | 0.97 (0.92–1.04) | 1.01 (0.96–1.07) | −0.03 (−0.09 to 0.03) | |
| Sustainer | 410 395 (45.7) | 5196 | 2.0 | 1 (Ref.) | 1 (Ref.) | 1.04 (1.01–1.07) | — | |
| Increaser | 132 872 (14.5) | 1698 | 2.1 | 1.01 (0.96–1.07) | 1.01 (0.95–1.06) | 1.04 (0.99–1.10) | 0.01 (−0.05 to 0.06) | |
| Light smokers (n = 89 040) | Quitter | 34 063 (38.3) | 348 | 1.6 | 1.00 (0.84–1.20) | 1.02 (0.84–1.25) | 0.82 (0.73–0.92) | 0.02 (−0.14 to 0.18) |
| Reducer I | 2984 (3.4) | 25 | 1.4 | 0.83 (0.55–1.27) | 0.76 (0.50–1.15) | 0.61 (0.37–0.85) | −0.19 (−0.46 to 0.07) | |
| Reducer II | 5786 (6.5) | 70 | 2.0 | 1.20 (0.91–1.58) | 1.06 (0.80–1.40) | 0.85 (0.65–1.05) | 0.05 (−0.18 to 0.28) | |
| Sustainer | 16 863 (18.9) | 171 | 1.6 | 1 (Ref.) | 1 (Ref.) | 0.81 (0.68–0.93) | — | |
| Increaser | 29 344 (33.0) | 354 | 1.9 | 1.19 (1.00–1.43) | 1.21 (1.01–1.45) | 0.97 (0.86–1.08) | 0.16 (0.01–0.32) | |
| Moderate smokers (n = 335 152) | Quitter | 73 550 (22.0) | 766 | 1.7 | 0.96 (0.88–1.05) | 0.76 (0.69–0.84) | 0.69 (0.63–0.74) | −0.21 (−0.29 to −0.14) |
| Reducer I | 14 184 (4.2) | 166 | 1.9 | 1.09 (0.93–1.28) | 0.88 (0.75–1.03) | 0.79 (0.67–0.91) | −0.11 (−0.24 to 0.02) | |
| Reducer II | 35 346 (10.5) | 401 | 1.8 | 1.05 (0.94–1.17) | 0.97 (0.87–1.09) | 0.88 (0.79–0.96) | −0.02 (−0.12 to 0.07) | |
| Sustainer | 136 790 (40.8) | 1484 | 1.7 | 1 (Ref.) | 1 (Ref.) | 0.90 (0.85–0.95) | — | |
| Increaser | 75 282 (22.5) | 923 | 2.0 | 1.14 (1.05–1.23) | 1.15 (1.06–1.25) | 1.04 (0.96–1.11) | 0.14 (0.05–0.22) | |
| Heavy smokers (n = 473 783) | Quitter | 77 621 (16.4) | 1011 | 2.1 | 0.94 (0.88–1.01) | 0.74 (0.68–0.80) | 0.83 (0.77–0.89) | −0.30 (−0.37 to −0.23) |
| Reducer I | 48 266 (18.2) | 762 | 2.6 | 1.15 (1.0701.25) | 0.99 (0.91–1.07) | 1.11 (1.03–1.19) | −0.02 (−0.10 to 0.07) | |
| Reducer II | 62 908 (13.3) | 828 | 2.1 | 0.95 (0.88–1.03) | 0.98 (0.91–1.05) | 1.10 (1.02–1.18) | −0.03 (−0.11 to 0.06) | |
| Sustainer | 256 742 (54.2) | 3541 | 2.2 | 1 (Ref.) | 1 (Ref.) | 1.13 (1.08–1.17) | — | |
| Increaser | 28 246 (6.0) | 421 | 2.4 | 1.08 (0.98–1.20) | 1.12 (1.01–1.24) | 1.26 (1.14–1.38) | 0.13 (0.01–0.26) | |
| Smoking status . | n (%) . | Myocardial infarction . | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 . | 2011 . | Case no. . | IR per 1000 person-years . | HR (95% CI) . | aHRa (95% CI) . | 5-Year absolute risk (%) (95% CI) . | Risk difference (95% CI) . | |
| All current smokers | Quitter | 185 234 (20.6) | 2125 | 1.8 | 0.90 (0.86–0.95) | 0.74 (0.70–0.78) | 0.77 (0.74–0.81) | −0.27 (−0.31 to −0.22) |
| Reducer I | 65 434 (7.3) | 953 | 2.4 | 1.16 (1.08–1.24) | 0.99 (0.92–1.06) | 1.03 (0.96–1.09) | −0.01 (−0.08 to 0.06) | |
| Reducer II | 104 040 (11.6) | 1299 | 2.0 | 0.99 (0.93–1.05) | 0.97 (0.92–1.04) | 1.01 (0.96–1.07) | −0.03 (−0.09 to 0.03) | |
| Sustainer | 410 395 (45.7) | 5196 | 2.0 | 1 (Ref.) | 1 (Ref.) | 1.04 (1.01–1.07) | — | |
| Increaser | 132 872 (14.5) | 1698 | 2.1 | 1.01 (0.96–1.07) | 1.01 (0.95–1.06) | 1.04 (0.99–1.10) | 0.01 (−0.05 to 0.06) | |
| Light smokers (n = 89 040) | Quitter | 34 063 (38.3) | 348 | 1.6 | 1.00 (0.84–1.20) | 1.02 (0.84–1.25) | 0.82 (0.73–0.92) | 0.02 (−0.14 to 0.18) |
| Reducer I | 2984 (3.4) | 25 | 1.4 | 0.83 (0.55–1.27) | 0.76 (0.50–1.15) | 0.61 (0.37–0.85) | −0.19 (−0.46 to 0.07) | |
| Reducer II | 5786 (6.5) | 70 | 2.0 | 1.20 (0.91–1.58) | 1.06 (0.80–1.40) | 0.85 (0.65–1.05) | 0.05 (−0.18 to 0.28) | |
| Sustainer | 16 863 (18.9) | 171 | 1.6 | 1 (Ref.) | 1 (Ref.) | 0.81 (0.68–0.93) | — | |
| Increaser | 29 344 (33.0) | 354 | 1.9 | 1.19 (1.00–1.43) | 1.21 (1.01–1.45) | 0.97 (0.86–1.08) | 0.16 (0.01–0.32) | |
| Moderate smokers (n = 335 152) | Quitter | 73 550 (22.0) | 766 | 1.7 | 0.96 (0.88–1.05) | 0.76 (0.69–0.84) | 0.69 (0.63–0.74) | −0.21 (−0.29 to −0.14) |
| Reducer I | 14 184 (4.2) | 166 | 1.9 | 1.09 (0.93–1.28) | 0.88 (0.75–1.03) | 0.79 (0.67–0.91) | −0.11 (−0.24 to 0.02) | |
| Reducer II | 35 346 (10.5) | 401 | 1.8 | 1.05 (0.94–1.17) | 0.97 (0.87–1.09) | 0.88 (0.79–0.96) | −0.02 (−0.12 to 0.07) | |
| Sustainer | 136 790 (40.8) | 1484 | 1.7 | 1 (Ref.) | 1 (Ref.) | 0.90 (0.85–0.95) | — | |
| Increaser | 75 282 (22.5) | 923 | 2.0 | 1.14 (1.05–1.23) | 1.15 (1.06–1.25) | 1.04 (0.96–1.11) | 0.14 (0.05–0.22) | |
| Heavy smokers (n = 473 783) | Quitter | 77 621 (16.4) | 1011 | 2.1 | 0.94 (0.88–1.01) | 0.74 (0.68–0.80) | 0.83 (0.77–0.89) | −0.30 (−0.37 to −0.23) |
| Reducer I | 48 266 (18.2) | 762 | 2.6 | 1.15 (1.0701.25) | 0.99 (0.91–1.07) | 1.11 (1.03–1.19) | −0.02 (−0.10 to 0.07) | |
| Reducer II | 62 908 (13.3) | 828 | 2.1 | 0.95 (0.88–1.03) | 0.98 (0.91–1.05) | 1.10 (1.02–1.18) | −0.03 (−0.11 to 0.06) | |
| Sustainer | 256 742 (54.2) | 3541 | 2.2 | 1 (Ref.) | 1 (Ref.) | 1.13 (1.08–1.17) | — | |
| Increaser | 28 246 (6.0) | 421 | 2.4 | 1.08 (0.98–1.20) | 1.12 (1.01–1.24) | 1.26 (1.14–1.38) | 0.13 (0.01–0.26) | |
aHR, adjusted hazard ratio; CI, confidence interval; HR, hazard ratio; IR, incidence rate.
Adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, smoking duration, alcohol consumption, regular exercise, area of residence, income, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidaemia, and chronic kidney disease. Statistically significant values are marked in bold.
Association between changes in cigarette smoking intensity and risk of stroke or myocardial infarction
| Smoking status . | n (%) . | Stroke . | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 . | 2011 . | Case no. . | IR per 1000 person-years . | HR (95% CI) . | aHRa (95% CI) . | 5-Year absolute risk (%) (95% CI) . | Risk difference (95% CI) . | |
| All current smokers | Quitter | 185 234 (20.6) | 3481 | 3.0 | 0.97 (0.93–1.01) | 0.77 (0.74–0.81) | 1.28 (1.24–1.33) | −0.37 (−0.43 to −0.31) |
| Reducer I | 65 434 (7.3) | 1631 | 4.0 | 1.30 (1.24–1.37) | 1.02 (0.97–1.08) | 1.68 (1.60–1.77) | 0.03 (−0.06 to 0.12) | |
| Reducer II | 104 040 (11.6) | 2004 | 3.1 | 1.00 (0.95–1.05) | 1.00 (0.95–1.05) | 1.65 (1.57–1.72) | −0.01 (−0.09 to 0.07) | |
| Sustainer | 410 395 (45.7) | 7923 | 3.1 | 1 (Ref.) | 1 (Ref.) | 1.66 (1.62–1.69) | — | |
| Increaser | 132 872 (14.5) | 2709 | 3.3 | 1.06 (1.01–1.11) | 1.02 (0.98–1.07) | 1.69 (1.62–1.75) | 0.03 (−0.04 to 0.10) | |
| Light smokers (n = 89 040) | Quitter | 34 063 (38.3) | 688 | 3.3 | 0.91 (0.81–1.04) | 0.88 (0.77–1.01) | 1.63 (1.50–1.77) | −0.21 (−0.45 to 0.03) |
| Reducer I | 2984 (3.4) | 61 | 3.3 | 0.94 (0.71–1.23) | 0.81 (0.62–1.06) | 1.50 (1.13–1.86) | −0.35 (−0.76 to 0.06) | |
| Reducer II | 5786 (6.5) | 161 | 4.5 | 1.27 (1.06–1.53) | 1.07 (0.89–1.29) | 1.98 (1.67–2.28) | 0.13 (−0.21 to 0.48) | |
| Sustainer | 16 863 (18.9) | 371 | 3.6 | 1 (Ref.) | 1 (Ref.) | 1.84 (1.65–2.04) | — | |
| Increaser | 29 344 (33.0) | 707 | 3.9 | 1.10 (0.97–1.25) | 1.13 (1.00–1.29) | 2.08 (1.92–2.24) | 0.24 (0.00–0.47) | |
| Moderate smokers (n = 335 152) | Quitter | 73 550 (22.0) | 1335 | 2.9 | 1.04 (0.97–1.11) | 0.85 (0.79–0.92) | 1.27 (1.20–1.34) | −0.22 (−0.31 to −0.12) |
| Reducer I | 14 184 (4.2) | 332 | 3.8 | 1.35 (1.21–1.52) | 0.97 (0.86–1.09) | 1.44 (1.28–1.59) | −0.05 (−0.21 to 0.11) | |
| Reducer II | 35 346 (10.5) | 705 | 3.2 | 1.14 (1.05–1.25) | 1.05 (0.96–1.14) | 1.55 (1.44–1.67) | 0.07 (−0.06 to 0.19) | |
| Sustainer | 136 790 (40.8) | 2390 | 2.8 | 1 (Ref.) | 1 (Ref.) | 1.49 (1.42–1.55) | — | |
| Increaser | 75 282 (22.5) | 1405 | 3.0 | 1.07 (1.00–1.15) | 1.12 (1.04–1.19) | 1.65 (1.56–1.74) | 0.17 (0.06–0.27) | |
| Heavy smokers (n = 473 783) | Quitter | 77 621 (16.4) | 1458 | 3.0 | 0.93 (0.88–0.99) | 0.73 (0.68–0.78) | 1.23 (1.16–1.30) | −0.45 (−0.53 to −0.36) |
| Reducer I | 48 266 (18.2) | 1238 | 4.2 | 1.29 (1.21–1.37) | 1.02 (0.96–1.08) | 1.71 (1.61–1.80) | 0.03 (−0.07 to 0.14) | |
| Reducer II | 62 908 (13.3) | 1138 | 2.9 | 0.90 (0.84–0.96) | 0.97 (0.91–1.03) | 1.62 (1.53–1.72) | −0.05 (−0.16 to 0.05) | |
| Sustainer | 256 742 (54.2) | 5162 | 3.2 | 1 (Ref.) | 1 (Ref.) | 1.68 (1.63–1.72) | — | |
| Increaser | 28 246 (6.0) | 597 | 3.4 | 1.05 (0.97–1.15) | 1.14 (1.04–1.24) | 1.90 (1.75–2.05) | 0.22 (0.07–0.38) | |
| Smoking status . | n (%) . | Stroke . | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 . | 2011 . | Case no. . | IR per 1000 person-years . | HR (95% CI) . | aHRa (95% CI) . | 5-Year absolute risk (%) (95% CI) . | Risk difference (95% CI) . | |
| All current smokers | Quitter | 185 234 (20.6) | 3481 | 3.0 | 0.97 (0.93–1.01) | 0.77 (0.74–0.81) | 1.28 (1.24–1.33) | −0.37 (−0.43 to −0.31) |
| Reducer I | 65 434 (7.3) | 1631 | 4.0 | 1.30 (1.24–1.37) | 1.02 (0.97–1.08) | 1.68 (1.60–1.77) | 0.03 (−0.06 to 0.12) | |
| Reducer II | 104 040 (11.6) | 2004 | 3.1 | 1.00 (0.95–1.05) | 1.00 (0.95–1.05) | 1.65 (1.57–1.72) | −0.01 (−0.09 to 0.07) | |
| Sustainer | 410 395 (45.7) | 7923 | 3.1 | 1 (Ref.) | 1 (Ref.) | 1.66 (1.62–1.69) | — | |
| Increaser | 132 872 (14.5) | 2709 | 3.3 | 1.06 (1.01–1.11) | 1.02 (0.98–1.07) | 1.69 (1.62–1.75) | 0.03 (−0.04 to 0.10) | |
| Light smokers (n = 89 040) | Quitter | 34 063 (38.3) | 688 | 3.3 | 0.91 (0.81–1.04) | 0.88 (0.77–1.01) | 1.63 (1.50–1.77) | −0.21 (−0.45 to 0.03) |
| Reducer I | 2984 (3.4) | 61 | 3.3 | 0.94 (0.71–1.23) | 0.81 (0.62–1.06) | 1.50 (1.13–1.86) | −0.35 (−0.76 to 0.06) | |
| Reducer II | 5786 (6.5) | 161 | 4.5 | 1.27 (1.06–1.53) | 1.07 (0.89–1.29) | 1.98 (1.67–2.28) | 0.13 (−0.21 to 0.48) | |
| Sustainer | 16 863 (18.9) | 371 | 3.6 | 1 (Ref.) | 1 (Ref.) | 1.84 (1.65–2.04) | — | |
| Increaser | 29 344 (33.0) | 707 | 3.9 | 1.10 (0.97–1.25) | 1.13 (1.00–1.29) | 2.08 (1.92–2.24) | 0.24 (0.00–0.47) | |
| Moderate smokers (n = 335 152) | Quitter | 73 550 (22.0) | 1335 | 2.9 | 1.04 (0.97–1.11) | 0.85 (0.79–0.92) | 1.27 (1.20–1.34) | −0.22 (−0.31 to −0.12) |
| Reducer I | 14 184 (4.2) | 332 | 3.8 | 1.35 (1.21–1.52) | 0.97 (0.86–1.09) | 1.44 (1.28–1.59) | −0.05 (−0.21 to 0.11) | |
| Reducer II | 35 346 (10.5) | 705 | 3.2 | 1.14 (1.05–1.25) | 1.05 (0.96–1.14) | 1.55 (1.44–1.67) | 0.07 (−0.06 to 0.19) | |
| Sustainer | 136 790 (40.8) | 2390 | 2.8 | 1 (Ref.) | 1 (Ref.) | 1.49 (1.42–1.55) | — | |
| Increaser | 75 282 (22.5) | 1405 | 3.0 | 1.07 (1.00–1.15) | 1.12 (1.04–1.19) | 1.65 (1.56–1.74) | 0.17 (0.06–0.27) | |
| Heavy smokers (n = 473 783) | Quitter | 77 621 (16.4) | 1458 | 3.0 | 0.93 (0.88–0.99) | 0.73 (0.68–0.78) | 1.23 (1.16–1.30) | −0.45 (−0.53 to −0.36) |
| Reducer I | 48 266 (18.2) | 1238 | 4.2 | 1.29 (1.21–1.37) | 1.02 (0.96–1.08) | 1.71 (1.61–1.80) | 0.03 (−0.07 to 0.14) | |
| Reducer II | 62 908 (13.3) | 1138 | 2.9 | 0.90 (0.84–0.96) | 0.97 (0.91–1.03) | 1.62 (1.53–1.72) | −0.05 (−0.16 to 0.05) | |
| Sustainer | 256 742 (54.2) | 5162 | 3.2 | 1 (Ref.) | 1 (Ref.) | 1.68 (1.63–1.72) | — | |
| Increaser | 28 246 (6.0) | 597 | 3.4 | 1.05 (0.97–1.15) | 1.14 (1.04–1.24) | 1.90 (1.75–2.05) | 0.22 (0.07–0.38) | |
| Smoking status . | n (%) . | Myocardial infarction . | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 . | 2011 . | Case no. . | IR per 1000 person-years . | HR (95% CI) . | aHRa (95% CI) . | 5-Year absolute risk (%) (95% CI) . | Risk difference (95% CI) . | |
| All current smokers | Quitter | 185 234 (20.6) | 2125 | 1.8 | 0.90 (0.86–0.95) | 0.74 (0.70–0.78) | 0.77 (0.74–0.81) | −0.27 (−0.31 to −0.22) |
| Reducer I | 65 434 (7.3) | 953 | 2.4 | 1.16 (1.08–1.24) | 0.99 (0.92–1.06) | 1.03 (0.96–1.09) | −0.01 (−0.08 to 0.06) | |
| Reducer II | 104 040 (11.6) | 1299 | 2.0 | 0.99 (0.93–1.05) | 0.97 (0.92–1.04) | 1.01 (0.96–1.07) | −0.03 (−0.09 to 0.03) | |
| Sustainer | 410 395 (45.7) | 5196 | 2.0 | 1 (Ref.) | 1 (Ref.) | 1.04 (1.01–1.07) | — | |
| Increaser | 132 872 (14.5) | 1698 | 2.1 | 1.01 (0.96–1.07) | 1.01 (0.95–1.06) | 1.04 (0.99–1.10) | 0.01 (−0.05 to 0.06) | |
| Light smokers (n = 89 040) | Quitter | 34 063 (38.3) | 348 | 1.6 | 1.00 (0.84–1.20) | 1.02 (0.84–1.25) | 0.82 (0.73–0.92) | 0.02 (−0.14 to 0.18) |
| Reducer I | 2984 (3.4) | 25 | 1.4 | 0.83 (0.55–1.27) | 0.76 (0.50–1.15) | 0.61 (0.37–0.85) | −0.19 (−0.46 to 0.07) | |
| Reducer II | 5786 (6.5) | 70 | 2.0 | 1.20 (0.91–1.58) | 1.06 (0.80–1.40) | 0.85 (0.65–1.05) | 0.05 (−0.18 to 0.28) | |
| Sustainer | 16 863 (18.9) | 171 | 1.6 | 1 (Ref.) | 1 (Ref.) | 0.81 (0.68–0.93) | — | |
| Increaser | 29 344 (33.0) | 354 | 1.9 | 1.19 (1.00–1.43) | 1.21 (1.01–1.45) | 0.97 (0.86–1.08) | 0.16 (0.01–0.32) | |
| Moderate smokers (n = 335 152) | Quitter | 73 550 (22.0) | 766 | 1.7 | 0.96 (0.88–1.05) | 0.76 (0.69–0.84) | 0.69 (0.63–0.74) | −0.21 (−0.29 to −0.14) |
| Reducer I | 14 184 (4.2) | 166 | 1.9 | 1.09 (0.93–1.28) | 0.88 (0.75–1.03) | 0.79 (0.67–0.91) | −0.11 (−0.24 to 0.02) | |
| Reducer II | 35 346 (10.5) | 401 | 1.8 | 1.05 (0.94–1.17) | 0.97 (0.87–1.09) | 0.88 (0.79–0.96) | −0.02 (−0.12 to 0.07) | |
| Sustainer | 136 790 (40.8) | 1484 | 1.7 | 1 (Ref.) | 1 (Ref.) | 0.90 (0.85–0.95) | — | |
| Increaser | 75 282 (22.5) | 923 | 2.0 | 1.14 (1.05–1.23) | 1.15 (1.06–1.25) | 1.04 (0.96–1.11) | 0.14 (0.05–0.22) | |
| Heavy smokers (n = 473 783) | Quitter | 77 621 (16.4) | 1011 | 2.1 | 0.94 (0.88–1.01) | 0.74 (0.68–0.80) | 0.83 (0.77–0.89) | −0.30 (−0.37 to −0.23) |
| Reducer I | 48 266 (18.2) | 762 | 2.6 | 1.15 (1.0701.25) | 0.99 (0.91–1.07) | 1.11 (1.03–1.19) | −0.02 (−0.10 to 0.07) | |
| Reducer II | 62 908 (13.3) | 828 | 2.1 | 0.95 (0.88–1.03) | 0.98 (0.91–1.05) | 1.10 (1.02–1.18) | −0.03 (−0.11 to 0.06) | |
| Sustainer | 256 742 (54.2) | 3541 | 2.2 | 1 (Ref.) | 1 (Ref.) | 1.13 (1.08–1.17) | — | |
| Increaser | 28 246 (6.0) | 421 | 2.4 | 1.08 (0.98–1.20) | 1.12 (1.01–1.24) | 1.26 (1.14–1.38) | 0.13 (0.01–0.26) | |
| Smoking status . | n (%) . | Myocardial infarction . | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 . | 2011 . | Case no. . | IR per 1000 person-years . | HR (95% CI) . | aHRa (95% CI) . | 5-Year absolute risk (%) (95% CI) . | Risk difference (95% CI) . | |
| All current smokers | Quitter | 185 234 (20.6) | 2125 | 1.8 | 0.90 (0.86–0.95) | 0.74 (0.70–0.78) | 0.77 (0.74–0.81) | −0.27 (−0.31 to −0.22) |
| Reducer I | 65 434 (7.3) | 953 | 2.4 | 1.16 (1.08–1.24) | 0.99 (0.92–1.06) | 1.03 (0.96–1.09) | −0.01 (−0.08 to 0.06) | |
| Reducer II | 104 040 (11.6) | 1299 | 2.0 | 0.99 (0.93–1.05) | 0.97 (0.92–1.04) | 1.01 (0.96–1.07) | −0.03 (−0.09 to 0.03) | |
| Sustainer | 410 395 (45.7) | 5196 | 2.0 | 1 (Ref.) | 1 (Ref.) | 1.04 (1.01–1.07) | — | |
| Increaser | 132 872 (14.5) | 1698 | 2.1 | 1.01 (0.96–1.07) | 1.01 (0.95–1.06) | 1.04 (0.99–1.10) | 0.01 (−0.05 to 0.06) | |
| Light smokers (n = 89 040) | Quitter | 34 063 (38.3) | 348 | 1.6 | 1.00 (0.84–1.20) | 1.02 (0.84–1.25) | 0.82 (0.73–0.92) | 0.02 (−0.14 to 0.18) |
| Reducer I | 2984 (3.4) | 25 | 1.4 | 0.83 (0.55–1.27) | 0.76 (0.50–1.15) | 0.61 (0.37–0.85) | −0.19 (−0.46 to 0.07) | |
| Reducer II | 5786 (6.5) | 70 | 2.0 | 1.20 (0.91–1.58) | 1.06 (0.80–1.40) | 0.85 (0.65–1.05) | 0.05 (−0.18 to 0.28) | |
| Sustainer | 16 863 (18.9) | 171 | 1.6 | 1 (Ref.) | 1 (Ref.) | 0.81 (0.68–0.93) | — | |
| Increaser | 29 344 (33.0) | 354 | 1.9 | 1.19 (1.00–1.43) | 1.21 (1.01–1.45) | 0.97 (0.86–1.08) | 0.16 (0.01–0.32) | |
| Moderate smokers (n = 335 152) | Quitter | 73 550 (22.0) | 766 | 1.7 | 0.96 (0.88–1.05) | 0.76 (0.69–0.84) | 0.69 (0.63–0.74) | −0.21 (−0.29 to −0.14) |
| Reducer I | 14 184 (4.2) | 166 | 1.9 | 1.09 (0.93–1.28) | 0.88 (0.75–1.03) | 0.79 (0.67–0.91) | −0.11 (−0.24 to 0.02) | |
| Reducer II | 35 346 (10.5) | 401 | 1.8 | 1.05 (0.94–1.17) | 0.97 (0.87–1.09) | 0.88 (0.79–0.96) | −0.02 (−0.12 to 0.07) | |
| Sustainer | 136 790 (40.8) | 1484 | 1.7 | 1 (Ref.) | 1 (Ref.) | 0.90 (0.85–0.95) | — | |
| Increaser | 75 282 (22.5) | 923 | 2.0 | 1.14 (1.05–1.23) | 1.15 (1.06–1.25) | 1.04 (0.96–1.11) | 0.14 (0.05–0.22) | |
| Heavy smokers (n = 473 783) | Quitter | 77 621 (16.4) | 1011 | 2.1 | 0.94 (0.88–1.01) | 0.74 (0.68–0.80) | 0.83 (0.77–0.89) | −0.30 (−0.37 to −0.23) |
| Reducer I | 48 266 (18.2) | 762 | 2.6 | 1.15 (1.0701.25) | 0.99 (0.91–1.07) | 1.11 (1.03–1.19) | −0.02 (−0.10 to 0.07) | |
| Reducer II | 62 908 (13.3) | 828 | 2.1 | 0.95 (0.88–1.03) | 0.98 (0.91–1.05) | 1.10 (1.02–1.18) | −0.03 (−0.11 to 0.06) | |
| Sustainer | 256 742 (54.2) | 3541 | 2.2 | 1 (Ref.) | 1 (Ref.) | 1.13 (1.08–1.17) | — | |
| Increaser | 28 246 (6.0) | 421 | 2.4 | 1.08 (0.98–1.20) | 1.12 (1.01–1.24) | 1.26 (1.14–1.38) | 0.13 (0.01–0.26) | |
aHR, adjusted hazard ratio; CI, confidence interval; HR, hazard ratio; IR, incidence rate.
Adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, smoking duration, alcohol consumption, regular exercise, area of residence, income, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidaemia, and chronic kidney disease. Statistically significant values are marked in bold.
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